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There are almost more rumors about Google’s activities than there are gossip column reports about Paris Hilton or Britney Spears.  

For several weeks the latest buzz has hinted at Google following Apple’s footsteps and developing a mobile phone that integrates features and function with their web services (Gmail, Google maps etc).  Much of the speculation has been fueled by Google’s hiring of high level analog engineers and mobile hardware/software developers.   It’s certainly possible.  It’s another possibility (which makes a lot more sense) that Google is not interested in building or selling phones but rather is working on phone development to better optimize Google services and products for use and distribution to the wireless world.   A Google-phone may never hit the market but development on one could help Google integrate Gmail into the next line of Motorola or Samsung phones.

Others rumors have swirled that Google is looking at acquiring Click to Read More

Yesterday, I noted that I made my first foray into the blogging world two years ago by way of few comments on Roger McNamee’s blog: The New Normal. At the time, Mr. McNamee was promoting his new book and writing regularly on the site. There were some ongoing discussions that intrigued me. As a passing experiment I wrote a reply to two of Roger’s posts, one on Sarbane–Oxley and the other in reply to a post of Roger’s about the direction Internet video. My replies were an experiment of sorts for me, and I wrote them anonymously. After recently seeing what I wrote in some old files, I decided to reprint my posts as well as links to the original discussions here on Metue. Yesterday I re-printed the piece on Sarbane–Oxley

Today, Internet Video:

Roger’s original discussion can be found here

In his post, Roger began what was to be a multi-part examination of Internet Video, its delivery models, and how he envisioned the market shaping up.

My reply, as with my Sarbane–Oxley posts, ended up being in two parts, first to Roger’s comments and a reply by Marc Andreeson, then to clarify a misunderstanding and add more to the discussion:

Reply 1:

Whenever I evaluate an early stage business, or new idea, there are a number of questions I ask well before I dig into numbers, the quality of the team, and the analysis.  The first, is always the same thing: “Is this a real solution to a real problem (a problem that potential customers are aware of)..or is the solution just for its own sake?” I know the marketing burden of convincing a customer that your solution is the best is already an expensive obstacle.  But having to first convince the customers that they have a problem and then educating them about the solution is a whole different level of risk. 

With Internet video, one of the core promises is broader programming and customer choice.  It’s hard to argue that these advantages are not saleable.  On the other hand, Click to Read More

Friday  I spoke about the latest trend in Web 2.0 book-marking technologies, "Social Clipping Services" like Kaboodle, and Google Notebooks.  As a consumer, I love the features these companies are providing.  Any tools that make my routines and work easier are welcome.   But as a business analyst?  Yesterday I couldn’t restrain my skepticism.   

Maybe I’ve been watching too much of the National Geographic Channel but I see companies offering solely these services and the image I have is: a Manhattanite dropped in the middle of an African Savannah with a Swiss Army Knife and a smile.  The New Yorker may make it out alive, but odds are against it. 

Yesterday, I excluded discussing aspects of Clipping Services geared toward retail and merchandising .  My goal was to stay on topic (Media Entertainment and Technology) and avoid tangents.   I focused only on using the tools for interacting with news and published data.  Clipping services which provide a retail/merchandise focus neither fit my broad focus of media, entertainment and technology convergence, nor yesterday’s narrow focus of working with published data on the web over extended periods of time. 

Click to Read More

For a writer, strategist or researcher, or anybody looking for information with purpose, the internet is a phenomenal tool.

Even if search engines only provide access to less than 1% of what’s out there on the web (see Bright Planet white paper on Deep web), what is accessible is, on its own scale, overwhelming.    It’s also overwhelming to work with. 

Who hasn’t run even an obscure search only to be bombarded with thousands more results than wanted, not counting the irrelevant, the unwanted, or the obtuse. And what do you do once you’ve found what you were looking for? Print outs reams of pages? Cut and Paste a quotation from a document to another? Manually plug stock quotations into a spreadsheet?  Or maybe you bookmark a page for later, even though basic book marking functionality is nothing more than a questionably organized archive who’s files sometimes get lost (page not found error?).

Admittedly, none of this matters if the question is a one time thing like the lowest airfare from New York to Boston, or whether the Red Sox beat the Yankees at Fenway. The challenge is with data reused over time like:  if you’re writing a business plan and need reams of market data; if you’re a Venture Capitalist trying to evaluate that business plan; if you’re an analyst, an amateur journalist, a compulsive vacation planner, a student …. if you are anyone looking for more than instant gratification.   

Click to Read More

Today eBay closed its acquisition of online ticket reseller Stubhub. Less closing costs and fees, the deal, which was announced on January 10th closed at a purchase price of $307m with approximately $21m of net cash.

The purchase, unlike many that have followed since eBay’s shrewd acquisition of Paypal in 2002 for $1.5b, seems a natural fit to eBay’s core retail/auction business lines. Stubhub, which was founded by two classmates from Stanford’s GSB (who held approximate 25% of outstanding shares at the time of the sale), acts as a middle market for for person to person resale of event tickets. It has market-leading position in the growing market for secondary sales of event tickets. (IAC’s Ticketmaster is the leader in primary sales and MusicToday, which is owned by Live Nation, dominates the sale of Direct-to-Fan ticketing)

In December, 2006 the Stubhub site was the 5th most visited ticket vendor with 2.1m unique visitors according to ComScore Networks. (The Top 4: Ticketmaster with13.3m, Moviefone with 12.8m, Fandango with 5.4m and Movietickets.com with 4.8m). For the prior fiscal year, Stubhub’s revenues were close to $100 and earnings (EBIDTA) were approximately $10m. Those numbers puts the transaction price at a rich multiple of approximate 30x revenue. That’s a big premium, arguably too much of one, but compared to the purchases Click to Read More

Google  (NASDAQ: GOOG), reported Q4 and Year–End earnings beating expectations and setting a new record for the company with quarterly earnings exceeding $1b.

Q4 revenue was up 67% to $3.2b.  Google earned $3.29 a share or $1.03b for the quarter.  Some analysts adjusted these numbers downward to a 24% (instead of 26%) tax rate for the quarter.  With that adjustment, Google still earned $2.99 a share, beating average analyst expectations by 7 cents.  On the negative side, commissions on revenue generated from advertising partnerships with websites (which are in the thousands) took 81% of the $1.2b in revenue from the partnerships.

Having beaten expectations for 9 out of the 10 quarters the company has been public, a lot is expected from Google in the market.  There is also some commentary and grumbling that that kind of track record indicates guidance from the company is too conservative and beating estimates alone doesn’t mean much.

For the year, Google earned $3.08b ($9.94 a share) on revenue of $10.6b compared with net income of $1.47b ($5.02 a share) on revenue of $6.1 for the prior year. Google closed the year with huge cash reserves ($11.2b) but Google also doubled their capital expenditures and almost doubled it’s payroll by increasing staffing to more than 10,500 employees.  

More detailed press coverage on Google’s finances can be found at:

Yahoo Finance
Google Finance
Marketwatch

Of the thousands of hopefuls who line up to audition for American Idol there are invariably a few who can’t sing and don’t know it.  There are also a few contestants with phenomenal talents.  The vast pool of wishful candidates fall somewhere in the middle of these two poles.   For that hopeful majority, producers and talent scouts stand as the gatekeepers to commercial success.  These overworked middlemen are charged with the tough task of plucking the talents from the pile and throwing back those unworthy.  Some amazing talents will be promoted (and some not so amazing ones), and likewise, some amazing talents will be overlooked.  It’s the nature of the business; at least the way it’s been so far.

The same phenomenon exists in publishing too.  Many dream of writing the great American novel, or even some low brow burlesque romance tale, but select few navigate the rough waters from hope to finished draft to literary agent through publication.

Fortunately, in the views of many aspiring talents, the gatekeepers have lost some power.   Changes in communication and media technologies, specifically, blogging, net video and the music industry, have helped bring about Click to Read More