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Looking back through centuries of history only a short list of communication technologies have fundamentally changed the way people and societies share information; things like written language, the printing press, the telegraph, the radio, and television.  Each, over years of evolution, utterly disrupted existing practices, pushing aside the antiquated and expanding the depth of possibilities.  Each, in developmental years, had critics predicting there’d be little long term value.    Each also has had champions who eagerly predicted the innovations would drastically reshape the world.

The Internet falls in to the same exclusive club but its functionality and contribution are still evolving.  It will take decades before the breadth of its impact and transformative power are fully understood.  Still, that won’t stop many  from predicting where things will go or how the Internet will continue to shape our world along the way.

Monday, Lehman Brothers took a stab at such a prediction.  Citing the disruptive power of the Internet, and its likelihood of changing business economics in the entertainment industry, they downgraded stock ratings on several companies.  The recent history of the music industry was cited as one partial justification.

The view seemed extreme.  This METUE review takes an in-depth closer look.

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In January, Bill Gates took the stage at the Las Vegas Consumer Electronics Show and for the last time mused on the future of computing.   One of three things he predicted was an eventual change in user interfaces.  There will be more touch.  More motion.  More gestures.   In the future, he said, we’ll migrate away from our dependence on keyboards mice and trackballs; we’ll have more natural interfaces.

In the gaming world, that future is already here.  It began a decade ago with the introduction of a range of Japanese arcade games – virtual skiing machines and dance pads.  These new peripherals then jumped to video game consoles.  Now they’ve been carried in a new direction and lifted to new heights with Nintendo’s motion control systems in the Wii and the introduction of rhythm games like Guitar Hero (Activision) and Rock Band (EA/MTV).

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Among the console makers, Sony and Microsoft have Nintendo beat when it comes to graphic and performance capabilities but Nintendo’s Wii is winning with playability.  Month after month, the sales gap between the companies is clear in the retail data.   But now, Sony may be nearing release on a new controller aimed at narrowing that gap; a product aimed at mixing playability (ease of use) with performance.

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Last month the debut of Grand Theft Auto IV was virtually guaranteed to influence gaming sales results and despite its late in the month release, with just a few days of sales, that’s exactly what it did.   Now another month has passed and a more detailed GTA IV sales picture is starting to appear along with the rest of the NPD North American retail numbers that were released this week.

For the month of May, GTA IV remained at the top of the gaming charts.   The Xbox 360 Version moved  871k units to finish in the top slot.  The PS3 installment finished fourth.  Cumulatively, across platforms, GTA IV moved 1.314million units.  That’s a sizable drop from April’s 2.85m total units but still an extremely high volume of sales; a number appropriate to its blockbuster status. 

The questions are: how will these numbers match up to projections?  Is GTA IV going to be the all time best seller? If so, by how much?  And perhaps even more importantly, were pre-sales forecasts that used Halo data spread from one to two platforms accurate?  

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The debut of Grand Theft Auto IV was one of those rare releases guaranteed to influence sales results; not that the gaming industry needs any help these days.  And even with a late in the month debut, even with just a few days to wield influence, that’s exactly what GTA IV did.   NPD North American retail numbers were released this week.  As has become common, the results were strong.

In total, April saw $1.23b in retail sales, up from $836.6m last year, a 47 percent increase.   Month to month, things were a little more measured:  April sales showed some seasonal slowdown compared to March.  The effect of Easter falling early also likely had some influence.   Still, year over year, impressive trends are continue.  Year to date, the industry is tracking 31% ahead of last year’s record setting pace. 

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Acquisitions and corporate reorganizations can be expensive and time consuming.   Electronic Arts, which has worked through both in the past year, demonstrated just how much Tuesday with the release of Q4 and yearend earnings.

Partly due to onetime charges, the game publisher recorded a quarterly loss of $94m.  The good news, on an adjusted basis, they earned $30m (9 cents a share), up from $19m last year.  The results were also more than good enough to surpass analyst consensus expectations.

By the Numbers:
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Mogul David Geffen probably isn’t readying himself for a foray into the gaming world, nor is he likely to lend his name to something video game related.  That makes him the odd man out among the elite three who lent their initials to form Dreamworks SKG when they founded it.  Geffen’s peers, Jeffrey Katzenberg and Steven Spielberg both have ties to gaming.  In fact, both each had gaming related news Tuesday.

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